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Saturday, November 02, 2019

The great house-buyer drought of 2018-19: See how your suburb fared

Post to Facebook on 2/11/2019 3:21 AM
Commenting on “The great house-buyer drought of 2018-19: See how your suburb fared”


It is official that the number of Victorian properties sold in 2018-2019 is 201,592 or 20,000 less than the previous year. This means, the fall is around 9-10%.

If the state government collected stamp duty worth about $5.5 billion during the year, the decline in revenue from stamp duty would be only half a billion dollars instead of $1 billion as reported. My goodness, this variance is not a small change!

So can we trust reporter or writer who is poor in maths to tell us how to suck eggs in real estate investment?

I have blogged on several occasions that there is a great shortage of listings, and It is evident from the reduced number of property for sale advertisements in local papers.

The state government framed the budget based on increase in stamp duty, and go gangbusting on large infrastructure projects, employ thousands of public servants, and generous wage increase for the next few years in some sectors.

Most disastrous of all, the ridiculously high pay rate for the construction workers on many projects will be a very bitter pill to swallow if things don’t work.

The fall in stamp duty revenue is going to delay or even scrapping some projects, and rise in unemployment. The economy will decline despite the numerous interest rate cuts.

There were talks about scrapping the stamp duty and replacing it with charging land tax on all properties. I doubt the state government is in a hurry now to scrap this stamp duty cash cow.

Will properties prices rise and rise like the previous boom? I still believe the prices remain fairly steady for this quarter, even some reports reckon the median price has gone up 2% in Melbourne and 1% for Sydney in the month of October.

Nothing much is said about the rise and fall in median prices in individual suburbs, and figures do not provide any indication whether more new properties then “existing” ones are sold.

I visited a suburb mentioned in the attached article in my blog recently, and there are 3-bedroom properties for around $450,000 to 650,000.

If you are serious about buying your first home, search properties around your budget range, and look through the properties for sale. Check out some of properties in the various suburbs, and hop into your car to check out the properties in various suburbs. Do not form your opinion so soon!

Thank you for reading.