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Thursday, August 30, 2018

Westpac signals the ending of ultra cheap homeloans

Posted to The Age (30/8/2018) on 30/8/2018
Commenting on “Westpac signals the ending of ultra cheap homeloans”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-signals-the-end-of-ultra-cheap-homeloans-20180830-p500nc.html


The Reserved Bank of Australia (RBA) has been sending the wrong signals for the past 20 months to first home buyers and interest-only mortgagees, by keeping the cash rate unchanged.

Low interest rate is a double whammy. Let's isolate the bond market and overseas sucking our capital, but work on simple logic only. Banks require depositors to put money in the banks so that the money can be loaned to borrowers used for whatever purposes.

Low interest rate does not attract cash depositors. It turns them to invest in other forms of investments such as shares and superannuation. As for first home buyers or property investors, instead of saving towards a larger deposit, which attracts close to no return, they take the gamble to borrow and invest while the interest charge is low. This throws the supply-and-demand of money out of whack - rise in demand of money by investors, but fall in deposits.

Many baby-boomers are rich in cash, but they are reluctant to spend because they do not earn any interest to keep their principal topped up. The fear of having all their money spent before they hit the grave puts a brake to their spending and therefore the consumer economy is not growing, just as predicted.

Despite many horrible things people talk about President Trump, he manages to creates a positive wave in the US economy. RBA did not take any preemptive measures to counteract the rise in US interest rates, resulting in offshore bond market sucking capital from Australia.

If the last Treasurer, now the Prime Minister, and Reserved Bank's Philip Lowe did not warn borrowers earlier about the likely rate rise by the banks, will the borrowers pay any attention to Peter Costello?

RBA keeping the cash rate low for so long is not a wise move!

Thank you for reading.

The day I was at the Auction in Wheelers Hill

Post to Facebook on 30/82018 at 9:18 AM
Commenting on “The day I was at the Auction in Wheelers Hill”
https://www.facebook.com/groups/626923500981964/permalink/746462402361406/

On Saturday 25 August 2018, a few members from Melbourne Real Estate by Sin Fong Chan (Group) joined me in attending a property auction at Wheelers Hill. For privacy reason, I shall not disclose the property address, and also refer the members attending the auction simply as members hereafter.

By Thursday evening, the members were informed of the address, accompanied by a few questions. The intention was to arouse their interest and motivate them to explore further. A couple of members submitted their answers or comments. The next day, a list of 22 questions / instructions was messaged to the group so that the members could do further preliminary research prior to attending the auction. Some questions could only be answered after inspecting the property and paying attention to the auction process.

It was a beautiful sunny morning, no dark clouds, no rain in sight - perfect day for an auction. Unfortunately, I could not really see Port Philip Bay as described in the brochure.

The crowd was not very large; the number of attendees was around 40, mainly from the neighbourhood plus a few the members.
The property is located close to primary and secondary schools, but no way it is a stone throw away from Jells Park, Brandon Park Shopping Centre and The Glen Shopping Centre.

Although the house number is 18, an auspicious number for the Chinese, the first impression of the front view does not attract many Chinese buyers who believe in Feng Shiu; furthermore, it is not a squarish-design housenor with a grand entrance.

The carport is directly and immediately in front of the front entrance. Two roller doors and a gate have been installed, turning the carport into two unofficial “garages”, or technically speaking enclosed carports. It is matter of a choice between security and appeal, but the latter is the loser.

Just think for a moment of a scenario if two cars are garaged with the roller doors closed, and the house is on fire. How easy is it for emergency personnel to access the house?

Due to the blockage by the enclosed carports, the front entrance is dark due to lack of natural light. However, the rest of the building does capture good natural light as it is almost in a north-south orientation.

Like the properties given in the comparable sales, the walls and doors of the property are painted white. Kitchen bench top, cupboards and floor of the bathrooms and laundry are also white. Such colour scheme not only enhances the brightness of the house, but also gives a spatial perception of spaciousness.

What the members did not point out is that the house was not cluttered and there were no tables in the bedrooms. All these helped to add the extra space, which is more important for the smaller bedrooms.

The house was originally built as a 3-bedroom house with a study. The study was small and had no built-in wardrobe. A cupboard was added at later stage.

The interior was professionally decorated with hired furniture, pictures and possibly the mirror in the dining room. I believe most of the owners’ original house content except the furniture in the family room had been stored at a storage company.

The large family area is an extension built around 20 years or longer. The telltale sign is the choice of brown tiles used throughout the kitchen and the extended area. The tile colour is totally different from that of the other white-tile areas.

Closer examination of the external walls proved that the house was extended. In fact the room below the rear deck was also a later addition. The sales staff was excited to show off this hide-away cum cellar, but I did not share his sentiment.

Members were also alerted about the higher than normal rise of the steps of the stairs from the deck to the garden level. This is rather hazardous and definitely NOT permitted. I doubt some part of the house was DIY job not passed by the authority.

The gutters are concealed behind the fascia boards. They are not well designed, especially the ones in the the enclosed carport. Rain water does not flow well, and certain parts are blocked, resulting in water running into the eves. Certain parts of the eves are evident of water damage.
The house was probably painted not long ago before it was put in the market. Freshly painted house can hide parts of the house being attacked by mildew. While I did not spot mildew attack area, one member detected musty smell and rising damp.

A pool can be an asset or a liability depending on whether any member in the family takes advantage of it. It can be fairly costly to run, and it is an added chore to maintain. It is difficult to determine whether the pool is in good condition. I know of at least two nearby houses having problem with cracked pools and leaky pipes.

One option is for the new owner to fill the pool with soil, or turn it into a lily-fish pond. It is important to consult a specialist before using a backyard handyperson to do the job.

If I were interested in the property, I had to inspect it thoroughly myself or engage a professional to do the job prior to auction. An auction sale contract is an unconditional one, that is, the buyer cannot ‘buy” the house subject to, say bank loan, building inspection or pst inspection.

I believe the owners are not very pedantic or worry about fine details. The cupboard in the former study is left in its original state with varnished side panel, instead of painting it white. In one of the bedrooms, a light fitting has two different types of light bulbs which give out different colour light, namely, white and yellow respectively. As mentioned before, the floor tiles are not white throughout.

With most furniture in storage, and all the rooms with rented beds, it is a sign that the owners are not living in the house at present.

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Before the start of he auction, I made the following observations:
Knowing that the property is very likely to be unoccupied, one can assume that the owners have certain degree of urgency to sell the property;
There were no expensive luxurious cars parked in the street;
There were no cars with Chinese auspicious number in sight;
The attendance appeared to be very relaxed;
No young people accompanied by parents.

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The price range quoted in the statement of information was between $1,150,000 and $1,265,000. According to realestate.com.au Wheelers Hill median house prices for 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom houses are $1,027,500 and $1,194,850 respectively. The overall median price is $1,170,000.

In Section 32, the site value (SV) and capital improved value (CIV) are $815,000 and $965,000 respectively. During boom time, CIV is general well below the market value, but during a downturn, the valuation is comparable.

What a difference a few months make! If the property was auctioned in April like those mentioned in the comparable sales, it could fetch at least $1,280,000 or another $100,000.

Why is it important to note who are attending the auction and who are bidding? There are at least 50% of Asians, mainly of Chinese origin. A quick scan of the crowd, I could not detect any serious bidders except the Indian/Sri Lankan young couple with a child.

The auctioneer opened a bid of $1 m and the young couple raised it by $100,000 to $1.1 m. No other bidder entered the ring, and the auctioneer called a vendor bid of $1.15 m. The couple was under pressure to increase the bid by one of the staff present. Was there a need to put in an increase bid if there was no one around to compete?

Without doubt, I can only assume that these are first time buyers, who buckle under the pressure exerted by the sales staff.
On a prior visit to the property at an open-for-inspection, I asked the staff whether the owners were looking at $1.3 m. He did not respond, which would mean it had to be over the quoted price range, and possible between $1.25 m and $1.3 m.

How likely the price would go beyond $1.2 m? I was certain it was not likely, because the two-storey property across the road was sold in September 2017 for $1.209 m.

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After evaluating what I knew about the CIV and based on other observations, I came to the following conclusion:
The owners have moved out of the property, and may not like to leave the house empty for too long. The cost of renting the furniture can be substantial and put a dent to the pocket;
The absence of luxurious cars indicates buyers with deep pockets from other suburbs were not showing particular interest in the property;
Similar to 2, not many crazy Chinese were going to bid up the price ridiculously,
It was unlikely to have other genuine bidders;
Mum-and-dad bankers were absent. They tend to be too excited to see their children win the bid for their dream home.
Since there was no other bidder, the young couple did not have to push the price higher after the vendor bid of $1.15 m. The property was pass-in after they bid $1.17 m.
If I were the young couple, I would not pay more than $1.1 m.

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The auctioneer and staff went into the house while the highest bidder and family waited eagerly outside in the cold in the “garage”. I believed the auctioneer and his colleagues must have negotiated intensely with the owners. They were inside the house for at least 15 minutes before the young couple were invited in for further action.

Another 10 minutes later, the emerged and told me that the property was sold for $1,180,000.

It was a good outcome for the owners with present market condition. As for the buyers paying $1.18 m, I could sense that they were happy with a price close to median price.

Thank you for reading

Sunday, August 19, 2018

Why Buy land? Why stay with paents?

Post to Facebook on 19/8/2018 at 11:15 PM
Commenting on “Why buy land? Why stay with parents?”
https://www.facebook.com/groups/626923500981964/permalink/738490573158589/

Some builders advertised they can build for less than $200k on vacant land. However, that's not the end of spending money once a house is built on it.

Council rate is charged based on Capital Improved Value (CIV), which is Site Value (SV) plus the improved value on the land plus house and any outbuilding. That means the ongoing expenses will be higher. Then there are other charges involved.

Land price is generally less than the price of land plus a building, that means one needs less money for the deposit for the la d.

When a property, be it house, unit or apartment, increases in value, it is the land that goes up in value. Land appreciates in value but a house depreciates, and in general, the increase gives a better return than putting the money in the bank to earn interest which goes towards the taxable income.

If the land is situated in a location where you like to live in, then you can build on it once you have saved enough for the next phase.

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For many young people, just be nice to their parents and stay with them until they are ready to move on. Why move out just for the so called freedom? That freedom can really burn a hole in their pocket.

If one has no parents to latch on, share with friends in rent a simple house or no frill apartment. Landlords are small business people, and more outgoing they pay for the property, will eventually pass on to the tenant.

Life style and how soon one wants to free from mortgage is a choice. Many Gen Y and Millennial can tough it out, but they choose to live up to "free" life. With longer life expectancy, and insufficient savings, Gen Y and Millennial will end up with nothing including a roof over their heads.

Land is financial security!

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PS. In order to stop land hoarding by investors, many new releases have restriction that buildings must be erected at a given period of time.

Do make sure that the land you buy has no requirement to build on the land at a given period, otherwise you will be forced to build or sell while you are ready to do so.

Since everyone financial situation is different, do consult a financial advisor should you require to include property investment in your investment portfolio.

Thank you for reading.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

London suffers biggest fall in house prices in nine years

Post to Facebook on 18/8/2018 at 10:08 AM
Commenting on “London suffers biggest fall in house prices in nine years”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/london-suffers-biggest-fall-in-house-prices-in-nine-years-20180816-h141o8-758692/


What has this news on London house prices to do with Melbourne Real Estate?

I have been saying that there is no sure win in any investment, especially you are looking for a quick buck.

If there is a guarantee about making heaps of money from real estate, why are those gurus giving their secrets away free of charge so willingly. These are just entree to get you signed up to their many thousand-dollar courses or consultation.

In an economics class, the common discussion is about supply and demand curve. There is more than one pattern or behaviour. When demand goes up, supply needs to meet supply. If supply is insufficient to meet demand, then there will be premium on the supply, and therefore prices go up.

On the contrary, if demand does not exist, and supply is excessive, then prices will go down.

If everything is hunky-dory, the prices will stay the same for years. However, the virtual “shrinking” of distance separating countries and hence the investors is moving fast, and things are getting more dynamic than years ago.

Someone has to tip the equilibrium first, and creates havoc to the market.

History has told us about Hong Kong property market collapse years ago, causing many suicides and bankruptcies. In recent times, Australia is not doing that well too. Today’s news about London's decline in property market confirms that the faster the rise, the bigger the fall.

News about biggest fall in house prices in nine years will send many to suffer a heart attack, especially those who have to sell the property due to mortgage stress. It can mean one moving out from a big house to living in a small rented room or goes homeless sleeping in the cold under a bridge.

Readers of my post must take note of my “free” advice. Take one step at a time, and do not let greed gets into your head. Do not follow the Joneses blindly, because they own a few properties, but under heavy mortgage.

For those budding developers and flipping investors, please do your sums right. Always work out the worst case scenario, and make sure you have an escape route should the worst case happen.

Melbourne cannot avoid the real estate downturn. It may be your opportunity to get your first home.

Thank you for reading.

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Puzzle over $3m in home buyers' deposits

Post to Facebook on 11/8/2018 at 1:25 AM
Commenting on “Puzzle over $3m in home buyers' deposits”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/where-is-all-the-money-puzzle-over-3m-in-home-buyers-deposits-20180810-p4zwp4.html


Times has really changed, and it seems there are more cons, sharks and crooks around now to scam and steal your hard earned money.

I am a very cautious investor. I do not like buying something off-the-plan, because a drawing on a piece of paper, a model, or a display show room may not become a real building.

How can one guarantee the workmanship is as good as displayed, or the actual size of the finished building really adhered to the original specification? What-you-see-is-what-you-get may be true about the drawing or copies of it, but not the finished construction.

I have been advising readers to invest in land if they lack sufficient fund to buy a house, but buying a diagram of subdivided land has just as much risk as buying an off-the-plan apartment or house.

Do I trust renovators, builders and developers new to the industry? Well, I am a chicken for sure, and unless they can show me what they have done or constructed, and I can talk to the owners independently, I do not bet on them.

There is a phrase in the real estate game, "buyers beware". In fact this should apply to buying anything big or small, not necessary for real estate alone. It will be very difficult to claim for damages or loss after the full amount of money is handed over to the unscrupulous crooks.

Another word of warning. Real estate investment involves hundreds of thousand of dollars, so do not save on a couple of hundred of dollars on conveyancers who are new to the industry. It is not that I do not want to give them a chance, especially the young ones; just that life experience in the conveyancing profession counts more than distinctions in academic qualification.

My hair is half white and half black. I definitely won't say that as grey. My black-and-white hair is a sign of life experience, sort of like an honours degree in addition to my paper qualification.

Some readers ask me where they should invest in. I can honestly reply here is that I am a blogger not an investment adviser. I share my knowledge, but I don't sell it at a cost.

Obviously, in order to get the maximum benefit from my advice, you have to read all my blogs here in Facebook, and my other blogs published previously in Google blogspot.com

Thank you for reading.

Thursday, August 09, 2018

Do your research before investing

Post to Facebook on 9/8/2018 at 9:08 PM PM
Commenting on “Do your research before investing”
https://www.facebook.com/groups/626923500981964/permalink/727167910957522/

I remember I had some very lazy and whining students in my accounting class. They expected me to hold their hands and provide them with answers for their homework. However, I expected them to try first and I would go through them later in class.

One student told her father about me. I felt so deeply humbled, because her dad said to to her, “you have a good teacher!”

In this group, I am not going to hold your hands, but you must first do your exercise first. I DO NOT mean you go to sign the contract and then ask for my opinion or “approval”. Who am I to show disrespect by telling you that you have made is a wrong decision? After all, good or bad is a matter of opinion.

What I want to ask explicitly is that you have to drive round checking out the various suburbs, understand more about the surrounding, the houses, infrastructure and prices.

That student may not remember this, but I still do.

Thank you for reading.

Wednesday, August 08, 2018

‘FOMO’ to become ‘FONGO’ in a falling property market

Post to Facebook on 8/8/2018 at 12:21 AM
Commenting on “‘FOMO’ to become ‘FONGO’ in a falling property market”
https://www.domain.com.au/money-markets/fomo-to-become-fongo-in-a-falling-property-market-20180806-h13l8z-756589/


There is no certain in any form of investment. Many real estate investors go from "fear of missing out" FOMO in last few years to "fear of not getting out" FONGO in recent time.

On Sunday 5 August 2018, I met the young couple who wanted to sell their apartment because they were afraid of its price would continue to fall and they might not be able to sell it later or even make a big loss.

Different owner has different financial circumstances, and for these young people, they should hold the property and ride out the downturn.

Like many property owners, they procrastinated when I advised them to sell their property when the prices in the real estate market were about or began to fall but before the news media went frenzy in declaring the coming of the doomsday.

The young couple acquired the property several years ago, and the property is tenanted. They still owe the bank a small amount, and the rent is more than enough to cover the loan repayment.

Besides the fear of falling prices, there are a couple of maintenance items which cost about two thousand dollars.

What most property investors forget is that nothing stays constant, and expenses fluctuate. No property investor should be that optimistic to think that their property can be tenanted 100% all the time. If it is not tenanted, there is loss of income.

When the tenants vacate, there is a chance that it needs freshening up, additional items to repair or maintain, advertising for property available for rent, and new leasing fee.

If a property is generating positive profit after tax over a number of years, then divide the extra maintenance outlay over the number of years, and adjust the past few years investment profit. If the return is still sound, then the property should not be sold in a panic.

I generally use a factor of 0.75 to multiply the annual rental as my projected average rental income. This is used to estimate my rental income over 5 years period.

Obviously the decision is in their hands. I did remind the young couple that I only get a share of the selling commission if the property is sold. The fact that I advised them NOT to sell it and sacrificed the commission, I was doing this with good intention.

Thank you for reading.

Sunday, August 05, 2018

More tip over the edge

Post to Facebook on 12/11/2018 at 1:26 PM
Commenting on “More tip over the edge”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/four-first-home-buyers-fight-for-footscray-apartment-at-auction-782489/


When I advise you not to spend on dining out, forget about overseas holiday or local resorts, do not buy the extra televisions and electronic gadgets, I do mean it.

When I advise you to wear proper clothing at home to keep warm; turn off lights, televisions, computers, appliances when not used, especially clothes iron; dry your clothing in the sun not in a dryer, I do mean it.

When I advise you to unsubscribe streaming services; stop driving to shops and supermarkets just for a few items; eat less to avoid getting fat so as to a avoid joining a gym, I do mean it.

All these activities cost unnecessary money that can go towards building up your needed deposit for a housing loan.

When I advise you to shop for better bank interest rate; use credit card for big ticket items, provided you have the money to repay the credit card on time; get an additional part-time job, I do mean it.

When I advise you to charge your friends or neighbours who need you to babysit their kids regularly; people who love your cakes or meals; coach their children school work, I mean it.

Besides reducing expenses, you should try increasing your income.

What I am going to advise you below is very controversial.

Do you expect your kid to be the next swimming gold medalist, ballerina, Olympic champion, Royal Albert Hall pianist, etc? How far fetched is your expectation?

You do not have to feel guilty just because Mrs Jones next door is doing it - sending her child to go for private tuition after school hours and on weekends.

While you consider this as a process of continuous improvement for the child, you forget you forfeit your opportunity to become better equipped/qualified, to gain an internal promotion or obtain a better paid employment.

The attached article talks about debt restructuring helps Stacey get out of her trouble. If you are in such unfortunate situation, don’t skip the articles.

Thank you for reading.

PS Your credit card expenses are debt liabilities and have an effect on your loan amount. I did empasise that you use your credit card provided you have the fund to repay it on time. When in doubt, check with your bank / loan manager ASAP.

Thank you for reading.

Thursday, August 02, 2018

'The worst is yet to come': House prices fall by fastest rate in six years

Post to Facebook on 2/8/2018 at 1:33 AM
Commenting on “The worst is yet to come: house prices fall by the fastest rate in six years”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/the-worst-is-yet-to-come-house-prices-fall-by-fastest-rate-in-six-years-20180801-p4zuuc.html


The news media real estate journalists and experts did not ring the alarm bell when Australian government announced the end of amnesty and tough stance taken by China government to curb the outflow of money.

Then there were all those self-proclaim real estate gurus running free seminars on accelerated depreciation, negative gearing, options and more recently property development, enticed the attendees to use duplication and replication approach to make mega bucks, and consequently led many greedy but half-bake and naive investors borrowing huge sum from various sources.

The early adopters may be the winners, but the market became congested, and prices kept going up and up because the pack mentality was at work. Mums and Dads had very good intention to help their children to get into the real estate market by providing interest free loan without knowing that the extra buying power in fact pushed the property prices up for the wrong reason.

The fall is sharp and will be for another year, around third quarter of 2019, when the bottom will be reached. However, it is not expected a sudden upswing until new government comes to power and starts mucking around with housing policies.

Hold on to your seat and tighten your seat-belt. The ride is getting more bumpy!

Thank you for reding.