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Thursday, December 13, 2018

Home invasions linked to short stay rentals on the rise

Post to Facebook on 12/11/2018 at 5:00 PM
Commenting on “Home invasions linked to short stay rentals on the rise”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/home-invasions-linked-to-short-stay-rentals-on-the-rise-20181213-p50m2m.html

Posted to The Age (13/12/2018) on 13/12/2018
Commenting on "Home invasions linked to short stay rentals on the rise"
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/home-invasions-linked-to-short-stay-rentals-on-the-rise-20181213-p50m2m.html


Some apartments are for really short term stay, even shorter than Airbnb. You guess it right, they are leased out for quickies.

The owners corp MUST ban apartments for leasing out as Airbnb or short term stay, because leasing of residential apartments is under the jurisdiction of Residential Tenancy Act.

Airbnb should be considered as a commercial concern, and to that end, owners corp should step in, and apartment owners conducting Airbnb business should be responsible and liable to pay for financial loss and pain and suffering of those that have tormented by home invasion.

Thank you for reading.

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

RBA and ASIC call for enhanced financial literacy for young Australian

Post to Facebook on 12/11/2018 at 5:00 PM
Commenting on “RBA and ASIC call for enhanced financial literacy for young Australian”
https://www.domain.com.au/money-markets/rba-and-asic-call-for-enhanced-financial-literacy-for-young-australians-790902/


What is financial literacy and how much does one need to understand in order to be literate financially?

Financial literacy is the possession of the set of skills and knowledge that allows an individual to make informed and effective decisions with all of their financial resources.

In order to make informed and effective decisions, we need information and tools.

There are so much relevant and irrelevant financial information available in various form of media, and from seminars delivered by many self proclaimed gurus or expertS. It is difficult to differentiate between the genuine and the fake. If not careful, the hard-earned money will go down the drain or scammed by the unscrupulous scum.

Investing in real estate is similar to other investments in that it carries risks. It is difficult to eliminate all the risks, but one must try to minimise as much risks as possible. The main tools for helping one to make calculated risk is mathematics.

Many people do not understand the subject, and essentially invest their money by throwing a dart at the dart board and hope that everything will turn out fine.

Let's see whether you can answer the following questions:

What are simple, compound and nominal interest rates?
Why is it important to save at an early age?
What is the financial benefit in renting versus buying?
How long should you take to pay off their mortgage?
Should one buys an investment property before paying off the mortgage of their primary residence?

Should one take advantage of negative gearing?
What is the break-even price range for investment property used for renting?
Why is the meaning of buy within your budget or means?

What is a supply and demand curve?
What is a consumer confidence index?
Should one invest on real estate when the index is low?
What are the pros and cons in investing in overseas real estate?

Young Australians learn a lot of subjects since primary school days. Do they apply or practise what they have learnt? Does it make any difference if they are taught finance?

I taught business mathematics in foundation year for several years. It covered simple interest rate, compound interest rate, mortgage, loan repayment, depreciation, indexes, currencies, present value, break-even analysis, etc.

I also taught Advanced Diploma students Excel in preparing spreadsheets for master budget which include application of financial accounting and management accounting, decision to buy or lease, loan repayment, etc.

For two semesters, I taught Diploma students economics - supply and demand curve, trends, entrance to market, tariff, trade debit and surplus, etc.

These subjects were delivered to students at different “competency” levels. Many of them did not have thorough understanding of the subjects, and even if they did, it was likely that they would forget them after their graduation.

Unless these students found employment which required the use of such mathematics and analyses, the knowledge they acquired is likely to be buried six-foot under.

These subjects are very dry subjects, and when students do not perceive them as potentially useful, they only absorb and retain the knowledge very superficially and temporarily.

Young people do know and understand about drug and substance abuse, effect of drink driving, healthy life-style and eating, environmental pollution, climate change, etc. Why are so many still thinking that these are someone else's problems, and will not happen to them?

It is more meaningful to introduce financial literacy subjects early in the school years, a small dose at a time, and packaged in such a manner the students can digest.

In later years of schooling, these subjects may be offered as short courses, or electives for those who intend to pursue real estate investment.

I hope you understand why not only information that you need, but also have a good understanding of mathematics to help in your decision making.

Thank you for your reading.

Sunday, December 02, 2018

Homes slide a serious risk to the Victorian economy

Post to Facebook on 12/11/2018 at 5:00 PM
Commenting on “Homes slide a serious risk to the Victorian economy”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/homes-slide-a-serious-risk-to-the-victorian-economy-20181129-p50j4p.html

Post to The Age (2/12/2018) on 2/12/2018
Commenting On "Homes slide a serious risk to the Victorian ecoconomy"
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/homes-slide-a-serious-risk-to-the-victorian-economy-20181129-p50j4p.html


It is always easy to be a guru or expert in hindsight. Too many people were drown in huge sum of money, including the state governments, due to housing booms in various states. They blank out the negative impact of downturns Like ostriches burying their heads in sand,

Obviously it makes good reading when dollar sign flashes across one’s face, whether the story is about boom or bust. What makes real estate reading less attractive is about the human costs, or social costs that probably outstrip any gain in the long run.

Victoria state government benefited billions over the last few years, which helped enormously in infrastructure expansion, improvevent in the safety on roads, such as removal of railway crossings, and construction of underground train stations. It is definitely a great effort, and I give my thumb-up for it.

However, good times do not last forever, and I am greatly concerned that Victorian economy will go into rail spin in the next few years, and the re-elected Labor Daniel Andrew’s government will not be able to keep all his promises, and take the state into a big Black Hole of debt. Victorians will be slaves of China, moneywise!

Homelessness does not appear overnight, and the blame is always on mental illness and drugs. Why do people suffer from mental illness or go on drugs? The latter problem is more complex, and may Not has direct link to the discussion.

Has the artificial 5% unemployment rate anything to do with mental illness? My estimation of a normalised unemployment rate is close to 15-18%.

I have witnessed several relatives and friends lost their jobs years ago. Thank goodness, they found employment and lived normally again. They went into depression, short in temper, and cried for financial help without answer.

Rates on suicide, divorce, family violence are not published regularly, but these statistics are more than likely reflect on the state of economy, and link to what the article mentioned, the downturn of real estate industry.

Mental health does not affects only the older adults, but also many Generations Y and Z and millennial. The fear of losing their jobs due to companies business decline presents a bigger stress than anything else, and the mental and psychological well-being deteriorate accordingly. The health and medical costs will drain a large chunk of the state government budget, if they really care.

I started regular Real Estate blogging since 2009, and my readers would have read about my predictions on the rise and fall of the real estate market months ahead of every of occurance. I am not Nostradamus nor a doomsayer, but a spherical thinker. Unlike many experts who concern more about macro economies here and abroad, and do not factor in micro economies of the people, the plight of the people, immigration and policies of governments.

Thank you for reading.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Australia property market price falls in Sydney and Melbourne are speeding up

Post to Facebook on 12/11/2018 at 5:00 PM
Commenting on “Australia property market price falls in Sydney and Melbourne are speeding up”
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-property-market-price-falls-sydney-melbourne-2018-11


We are not alone! No, I don’t mean the aliens from different universe are dropping by to visit our planet. I mean the sustainability or boom and bust of our real estate market do rely on overseas investors, as well as local investors.

An agent’s representative was rather sarcastic in commenting in one of my blogs that she had not come across a property that had dropped by 20%. I believe she is still too green in the game.

Not being able to read the real estate market by the economists who probably have influence on the governor of RBA‘s monthly decision in setting the official cash rate, and advisers of government on money matter can lead to a big negative impact on livelihood of ordinary Australians.

The linked article highlights that the real estate downturn is spreading like a cancer, and if it is not checked, many cities, towns and industries will fall victim.

Just a few hours ago, I was talking to my bank customer relation manager about the current low bank interest rate.

Baby boomers are cash rich, but are reluctant to spend because they see their money keep dwindling, because their bank balance is not topped up with interest earned. As a result, they do not put money in the bank, and the bank do not have enough fund to lend.

Real estate markets affects many other markets. Once the real estate market declines, money does not flow in the economy and businesses will be affected, and consumer confidence gets eroded.

It is not high interest rate that deters investors and ordinary buyers from investing in the real estate market, but lack of consumer confidence that dampens their enthusiasm.

The downturn is an iterative process. The initial downturn lowers consumer confidence, which then leads to further downturn, and so on.

A WeChat friend posted this similar link in his WeChat Timeline, and asks me how low will the prices go, and when will the decline stop.

Well, I have discussed this many times, so I would like you to answer these questions just to make sure you do pay attention to my blogs.

Thank you for reading.

Monday, November 12, 2018

Housing slump set to be the largest in nearly 40 years

Post to Facebook on 12/11/2018 at 5:00 PM
Commenting on “Housing slump set to be the largest in nearly 40 years”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-slump-set-to-be-the-largest-in-nearly-40-years-macquarie-says-20181107-p50ejz.html


At the start of August, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said he expected price falls in Sydney and Melbourne to max out at 15 per cent from peak to trough. Only two months later, in October, he expected price falls in those markets will reach 20 per cen

On 7 November, Macquarie Bank said the downturn in Australia’s housing market would be larger than it first thought, with price declines of between 15 per cent to 20 per cent likely in Sydney and Melbourne.

These two are financial and economic experts, and yet they have to revise their forecasts, not once but several times to come to similar magnitude of decline.

According to available data from CoreLogic, such decline will bring prices back to 2015 level.

Will the property prices go further down? I believe the chances are high. Recently, I read a report on Toronto and Vancouver real estate market, and it is just bad news. Melbourne market is very similar to those cities, and the light at the end of the tunnel for real estate investors has been turned off.

Is it good enough to place your bet on a property which has dropped to 2015 price?

If a property was bought in 2015, and returns to the market for sale in 2018, you must ask the question why it is back to the market so soon? There is nothing wrong to be suspicious and inquisitive to double or even triple check with the selling agent.

Most good properties or should I say good value properties do not return to the market after a short time, unless they have been renovated or flipped for a profit. If they are sold at a loss, they were likely to be overpriced previously. If the properties are renovated or flipped and return to the market at a lower price, you should be more cautious about the quality of materials used or workmanship - was it done with a shoestring budget, or ran out of money towards the end?

Sometimes it is better to buy a property that has not been renovated, because the defects are not hidden by a new coat of paint or a new driveway. Fresh pine bark or red gum chip in flower beds can mean abundant tears after you buy the property. Weeds will pop up because the bark or chip are for cosmetic reason and serves no purpose in stopping the weeds from sprouting. This needs to be completely removed and the garden beds redone.

I have said many times most properties were over priced or over valued in the past few years. This is bad for a property owner’s pocket because Council rate is based on the Capital Improved Value. It is very difficult, if not impossible, to argue with the Council about the real worth of the property and adjust the rate accordingly.

When you inspect a property, do check the Council valuation in the Vendor Statement also known as Section 32. Is the asking price comparable to the valuation? If the variation is too big, either to your advantage or otherwise, you should raise that question to the selling agent.

Thank you for reading.

Four first home buyers fight for Footscray apartment at auction

Post to Facebook on 12/11/2018 at 1:26 PM
Commenting on “Four first home buyers fight for Footscray apartment at auction”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/four-first-home-buyers-fight-for-footscray-apartment-at-auction-782489/


Should you do the same as this young couple, stretching the budget to get the apartment?

In my opinion (IMO), the short answer is NO, unless you have a budget with a plus 5% tolerance. It is not desirable to have a budget and not stick with it, especially at an auction. It is different to buy in a private sale or private treaty, which allows you 3 business days to cool off. Should you decide it is a financial risk or too much of a burden, and you may pull out within the period, but suffer a penalty of $100 or 0.2% of the purchase price, whichever is greater.

One simple question you may want to ask is why do other bidders pull out? Why don’t they want to pay above reserved price? Well, one answer is that you see value that they don’t. It could also be that you are too emotional, blinded by the hype or not familiar with the market.

The sales record of this property is without doubt amazing. The property started from $50,000 in 1994, sold the year after at $74,500. The vendor of the property was purchased in 1999, at $165,000. In 19 years, it jumps to $587,000, or 3.55 times the purchase price or 11.74 times of 1994 price.

One reason for the low price in early days is that Footscray was a working class suburb with factories and warehouses close by. The close proximity of the shipping dock also made Footscray a thoroughfare of trucks.

The suburb was originally dominated by Italians, Greeks and Yugoslavs, but the demographics changed with the mess arrival of Vietnamese and South Africans. Footscray also has many Indians who moved from Dandenong. The newer migrants transformed the once run down, sleepy suburb into a multicultural shopping hub.

Closure of factories and just about 5 km from CBD have made Footscray attractive to many house hunters. In fact I witnessed the transformation took place, because I used to market and deliver cakes to a couple of customers in the mid-80s to early 90s.

Once again, the price jump is due to the Asian influence. Will it jump further at such big rate in the future? My crystal ball tells me it will not, especially the apartment or more precisely known as flat will get older and older, and more maintenance headache will set in.

Many of the houses in Footscray are small and due for demolition. If Melbourne population grows a lot more and at greater rate, developers will be attracted to this suburb. In order to make a comparison of Footscray future, we can take a page from Richmond and Springvale where Vietnamese are very visible and dominant. Even with a big migrant influx, Footscray is not affordable, and price jump is very unlikely.

The following paragraphs estimate the financial commitment incurs for the winning bid:

An additional $27,000 over the reserved of $560,000 is close to over 4.8%. If borrowed that amount at 4% over 20 years paying principal and interest, the extra interest is about $12,200. The additional monthly repayment is about $165.

Assuming the couple has 20% equity and borrow 80% of $587,000, as a first home buyer, stamp duty $30,290 is exempted, but other charges like lender mortgage insurance, transfer fee or other incidental amount to $10,588.

Thank you for reading.

Monday, November 05, 2018

Melbourne auctions see more investors opting out

Post to Facebook on 5/11/2018 at 10:08 PM
Commenting on “Melbourne auctions see more investors opting out”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/selling-up-melbournes-auctions-see-more-investors-opting-out-780394/


If you go through all my posts, you should have come across that I have written several times about when the house prices will turn around for the better. Before this, the market is very turbulent, then bumpy. I also mentioned that it is time to wait, unless you need to buy urgently for your own accommodation.

It is always a nail biting experience, whether to wait or to buy now. Undoubtedly, every minute there are people making a profit or a loss in real estate transaction. The crux of the matter is how long does it take for such investment to achieve such outcome.

I have lost count in advising you the readers to buy within your budget, and make sure to add in all the costs and expenses during the initial purchase and subsequent ownership of the property.

When an investor buys a property not for own dwelling, it needs to be let out to generate an income in order to pay off the loan from the lender, unless he has plenty of spare money or property hoarding is his business, be the property a residential building, office, warehouse or even a car park.

There are far too many snake oil salespeople running free seminars, generally with ulterior motive. They give new comers and naive investors false hope of property ownership or making lots of money by flipping or developing, leading the unsuspecting to commit debts far beyond their earning capacity or repayment capability.

If an investor only listens to the attractiveness of negative gearing, and blindly buys a property which does not generate a positive bottom line even when it is let out, what will happen to the owner financially if the property is untenanted when the rental market turns sour, like now?

Apartment developers are very sleek in promoting and marketing their products. The marketing brochures show beautiful surrounds, parks, movie theatres, cafes, sports arena, but these are good for the eyes momentarily and the novelty will soon wear off. Obviously, the developers tend to leave out the actual eventual owner’s corporation fee.

Most developers also offer rental guarantee for a year or two at a return much higher than what the actual market can support. As there is no free lunch in this world, the so called rental guarantee is costed in, in effect, the apartment is not worth as much. Once the honeymoon period is over, the investor may not be able to let out at the suggested rent, except to reduce it, resulting in a lower or even a negative return.

First home buyers have been taking advantage of the attractive government incentives, and lured into buying properties they cannot afford, especially those hand-to-mouth wage earners. Many fall into the young or early family category, with rate of spending keeps going up on many fronts, and therefore the net balance to repay The mortgage continues to slide. To add to the wound, the interest rate in the foreseeable future is only up.

Many downsizes and upsizers make big mistakes of buying a property first without selling their own first. They do that because they fear of not having a roof over their head after they sold their property. Very likely, they believe ignorantly the appraised value of their property by some very enthusiastic real estate agents who just want to get the listing. When the time comes, they are short of money to settle the next property.

All the scenarios mentioned above are real, and now you understand why the hot market in the previous years cause more miseries than just housing affordability.

Time to let go and cut the losses. Someone’s misfortune is another person’s opportunity. Which side of the fence are you on?

Thank you for reading.

Thursday, November 01, 2018

How your digital spending could affect your chances of your future home loan

Post to Facebook on 1/11/2018 at 3:49 PM
Commenting on “How your Uber Eats history could affect your chances of your future home loan”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/how-your-uber-eats-history-could-affect-your-chances-of-your-future-home-loan-779623/


I have been advising you, the readers, to save, save and save, so that you can raise as much as you possibly can for a higher share of equity and give the lenders the confidence to lend you the rest of the money for the home loan.

Many people do not believe in loyalty to a bank. Well, I am just another old school account holder; I have to confess that I keep money in more than one bank, but I have been a long time customer for each. In fact, close to 40 years or longer.

Not that I have a lot of money in each bank, I move my money around; I might have a huge balance at one bank for some time, and little in their other. Later, I do the same with another bank. The whole idea is to make my presence felt, and get to meet the manager of senior staff member.

The above paragraphs describe the direct opposite effect of what the article talks about. Such loyalty can counteract the negatives of one’s “bad” habit spending.

The convenience of online meal order, and the use of home delivery makes one unhealthy physically and financially. I still feel the pinch if I spend more than $30 for a meal in a restaurant. In general, my normal individual portion Malaysian meal does not exceed $18.

One cannot just develop the habit of saving overnight, but if one is not determined to achieve their target, the hope of owning a house is highly unlikely.

Lenders need to assess the borrower’s ability to repay the mortgage. With hardly any upward movement in wages, one‘s bottomline will only become less and less as cost of living just goes up and up.

The basic logic shows that if one does not get a promotion in his workplace, then the money spent daily will have to be reduced.

Online order does not just stop at meals. Purchases from eBay, Amazon, Gumtree, etc all leave traces and telltale signs, which may not leave a good impression for the potential lenders. However, if one is disciplined enough to use the plastic card for regular payments of utility, and essential expenditure, this may score well and be perceived as a responsible borrower.

I do not need any further loan from the bank; even if my spending is tracked, I cannot see how the bank can make use of the data collected. One thing the banks will notice is that I do not shop at Aldi, because it charges transaction fee.

Thank you for reading.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

The ex-Gatwick owners buy luxury apartment in their old hotel

Post to Facebook on 30/10/2018 at 3:21 AM
Commenting on “How your Uber Eats history could affect your chances of your future home loan”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-block-2018-the-gatwick-sisters-buy-luxury-apartment-in-their-old-hotel-778065/


Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. For me, I shall give the apartments a miss even if I have the money to outbid the other participants.

The run down property was sold to Channel 9 in 2017 for $10 million after the previous owners had run the hostel for over 30 years. Good luck to new apartment owners, each spent between $2.77 million and $3.02 million during the indoor auctions. The total amount went under the hammer is $14.49 million.

The contestants make some handsome profit, an early present for the coming Christmas. The highest prize money goes to Sarah and Hayden, a cool $645,000.

The different sale agents also benefit from the auction and gain free publicity. Another beneficiary is the buyer advocate who buys 4 out of the 5 apartments on behalf of his clients, and more than likely, he earns as much as the sales agencies combined.

The biggest winner of all is the Victorian government. The total stamp duty fee payable on the property purchases is $815,549.50. This includes transfer fees of $3,605.00x5=$18,025 and mortgage registration fees $114.90x5=$574.50.

I like to live in a property with a happy past, which the ex-Gatwick lacks. According some sources, the property was a privately run hostel for people who could not get a place anywhere else, if they were too violent or dysfunctional.

Will the sale prices be that "astronomically" high if the buyers are to bid personally at the auctions, instead of engaging a buyer's advocate? I believe the price will be much lower. Normal bidding buyers are tensed, and emotionally charged, and tend to hold back with their bids or push up the bid by smaller increment. A professional advocate has no emotional attachment; the higher they bid up the price, the more commission they earn.

In my early years in Melbourne, I used to stay in Elwood and worked part time at the St Kilda Junction. Since I am not a beachy person, living close to the beach is not my preference.

Up till the early 90's, I enjoyed the cakes sold in Acland Street. My wife and I drove all the way from Mulgrave to Acland Street just to buy a piece of Rum Cake, Vanilla Slice and Almond Croissant. The quality deteriorated when the original owners sold out their business, retired or passed away.

Thank you for reading.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Sydney Melbourne property prices face 20 per cent drop

Post to Facebook on 20/10/2018 at 2:06 AM
Commenting on “How your Uber Eats history could affect your chances of your future home loan”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/sydney-melbourne-property-prices-face-20-per-cent-drop-says-amp-20181019-p50am3.html/


I always believe in my prediction about the magnitude of the price decline. It is good finally to read from the so-call expert that Sydney and Melbourne property prices face 20% drop.

Should the Reserved Bank of Australia (RBA) further reduce cash rate? In my opinion, the answer is definitely not. In fact, the interest rate should go up, much more than double.

Unfortunately, bank interest rate, either for loan or deposit is completely out of syn with the RBA‘s decision. The reason for the banks to increase the loan interest rate is the cost of money from overseas is high, and they cannot attract enough deposits from the local as well.

Who would put money in the bank to get pittance from the interest paid? Many potential home buyers just can’t grow the deposit because most banks offer from miserable 0% to less than 1% interest.

There is no motivation to save for a deposit, and those belong to this category will spend the money on disposable items, cafes and restaurants, or lifestyle such as cheap overseas travels that benefit the destination countries.

Many people do not understand the cost of owning and running a house. Those who live from hand-to-mouth should not consider or ready to own a house, unless they can improve their income position. They are vulnerable to face bankruptcy if mortgage interest rate is to increase or arrival of economic downturn.

Investors look for either capital growth or income stream. Many ordinary wage earners still believe in investment gurus who advise their followers to buy properties that rely on negative gearing, which can offset their tax obligation. My suggestion to small time investors who do not have a big wage packet NOT to take this option, because the future governments may not allow negative gearing as an investment strategy.

Not all investors look for capital growth. They want regular and acceptable rate of return. Negative gearing is not their preferred option, and worse still they may not have the time to realise the capital growth. A reasonable interest rate increase will encourage this group of people to switch from property investment to cash in the bank.

I may not have qualification of the RBA governor or possess a string of degrees of the financial and economical experts, but I have a rational mind to put forward my own sound and logical hypothesis.

Thank you for reading.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Middle ring faces price pressure at weekend auctions

Post to Facebook on 15/10/2018 at 2:35 PM
Commenting on “Middle ring faces price pressure at weekend auctions”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/auction-melbourne-773040/


I am neither a sour grape nor a doomsayer, but one with a virtual crystal ball to read the real estate market.

As an investor, I like to see my property value grow. However, it is unrealistic to expect it to grow and grow each year continuously at the same rate. I am happy to see it not to drop below my target when I sell it.

I recalled giving free advice to two people I know well to be careful with the real estate market because of the forthcoming downturn; both did not respond nor thank me, but told my wife that I was too pessimistic. One paid $1.8 m for a timber house in Mt. Waverley, and $1.5 m for a unit in Glen Waverley. Then another paid $3.4 m for a McMansion in GW, and $1.2 m for a “renovated” 3-BR house in GW, nowhere considered as a prime location. Yes, the properties definitely do not worth as much today, and yet the rates and charges, and land tax will put a dent in the pocket.

The report in the news article confirms my prediction. For many agents who thought that I was spreading fear of drastic price fall, should take back their words.

What many people do not realise is that the amount of 10% fall in price is more than 10% rise in absolute value. Consider a property original worth $1,000,000. If it rises by 10%, the gain is $100,000. But if new value $1,100,000 is to fall by $10%, the decrease is $110,000, resulting in the final value of $990,000.

Timing is the essence, and patience reaps the reward. Some people sell and then buy in the same market condition may not benefit much. Obviously these people need somewhere to live, and so they join in the rush.

You must keep in mind that if you need to use the money from the sale of your property you live in towards the buying of a property for the similar usage, you will be making the biggest mistake, especially in a cooling market. You may end up selling the property for a song in order to have enough fund to finance the purchase.

We are living in a very uncertain time, and this is definitely not a good time to sell.

Thank you for reading.

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Couple snap-up Northcote home in cooling market

Post to Facebook on 14/10/2018 at 5:17 AM
Commenting on “Couple snap-up Northcote home in cooling market”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/8216they-got-it-under-their-limit8217-couple-snap-up-northcote-home-in-cooling-market-20181013-h16lm4-772935/


This is the first time Domain reports the clearance rate dips below 50%. I have been alerting that clearance rate was below 50% for a number months, and I could not work out why Domain calculated otherwise.

Is this the best time to put properties in the market for sale? Well this is normally the case, but it seems this time, things do not follow history. The warm weather, bright sunny day and blooming flowers are factors to draw potential buyers out, but all the bad news prevent the buyers to dig deep in their pockets.

Many agents still try hard to convince potential sellers to auction their properties. This enables not only the properties to have greater exposure, but also the agents benefit likewise. The agents get free advertisement and promotion, compliment of the sellers who pay for the agents’ advertising space.

Cooling market is NOT good for auction, because shortage of enthusiastic bidders will not result in high bid. It is a waste of time and money, especially the cost of advertising is never cheap.

If you are ready to buy, try not to get involved in auction; instead work on properties for private sale. If read between the lines, you should have picked up that properties failed in auction will return to the market as sale by private treaty. You tend to have the upper hand than the disappointed sellers.

I am still amazed by young couples paying mega bucks for some timber houses on small blocks of land. Please do not over commit yourself in loan, because mortgage stress is a killer.

Thank you for reading.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Fussy buyers snub houses that don't present well

Post to Facebook on 13/10/2018 at 2:45 PM
Commenting on “Fussy buyers snub houses that don't present well”
https://www.theage.com.au/money/investing/fussy-buyers-snub-houses-that-don-t-present-well-20181011-p5093l.html


Marketing is about selling what people want to buy, NOT selling what owner wants to sell! As a owner of my own home, I am house pride. It does not cost a lot of money to keep the house in good condition. If you can’t move around in the house, you are having too many things that you are unlikely to use or can’t find a place to put them.

Is it really that difficult to keep your shower or kitchen clean? Why wait until you see the white soap scum or black mould around the wet area? Why do you wait till the spiders dangle from the web before you take out the vacuum cleaner? Why do you wait until the grass grow to knee-high before you get off the backside and push the lawn mower to give the poor grass a new lease of life?

House painting is a chore, but do it slowly and patiently. It may take a day to paint a room, so be it. You have plenty of time before you sell the house, anyway.

I had no experience in “real estate” when I bought my first house. I knew nothing about renovation. I did not know how to use a hand saw, let alone understand the use of a power tool. There was no Internet, or handyman training video. I relied on books and magazines from the library, and visits to McEwans, which later became Magnet.

I removed the old and dirty kitchen, made new kitchen frame in less than a fortnight, because the Gas people came to install the gas hotplate after giving me two weeks notice. The story behind was that the previous owner put pots and pans over her electric hotplates during our inspection, and silly us never tested whether the hotplates worked. Yep, they were not working!

It took me three years to complete the kitchen. The rewards were immense. Besides having a rather “professionally made”, good looking, contemporary kitchen, I learnt how to design a kitchen, use of hammer, chisel, electric circular saw, drill and sander. I also learnt to cut, glue and trim Laminex/Formica. I tiled the splash back and a small part of the bench top for hot pots and pans to rest on.

While the kitchen was taking shape, my wife and I stripped and replaced the wallpaper, and laid new vinyl floor tiles.

It was not easy for us both working full time and “renovating” the house. Bit by bit, the kitchen, bathroom, and the backyard turned out great. We had no large machinery to chop the big trees or remove the tree stumps, so we had to get external help to partially landscape the front garden. We did the rest. The lounge and other rooms had new curtains too.

So are you thinking that I am bragging again? So what if it is true. I just like to share with you that “if I can do it, so can you!” If you want to enjoy your house which is your home, then spend small sum of money regularly in maintaining and updating the house. Do not wait until you are about to sell the house then pay big money to update it for the next owner to enjoy. Do be mindful that the new occupiers may tear away all that you have done, because the renovation is not what they like

Honestly, I am a hoarder myself. I still have magazines from the ark, and computers since Apple IIe. These are my museum collections. I still have my Form 5 maths exercise book, and some early university physics laboratory book. These are my pride and joy. However, they are in the way.

Thank you for reading.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Sydney Melbourne bear brunt of fall in housing market confidence

Post to Facebook on 11/10/2018 at 11:08 AM
Commenting on “Sydney Melbourne bear brunt of fall in housing market confidence”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/sydney-melbourne-bear-brunt-of-fall-in-housing-market-confidence-20181010-p508vs.html


The fall in house prices of 10% and 8% in Sydney and Melbourne respectively over the next 18-24 months is rather optimistic to say the least. This is how statistics lies. I am not certain whether the fall reflects the median prices or average prices. For this discussion, the key point is that there are prices fall more than the given percentage, and there are prices falls less than that.

Most people do prophecise the doom, and keep the doom momentum going, until such time a reputable economy guru or government minister descends from somewhere to turn the market around. When the guru appears, it will be a mad rush and everyone will be scrambling for a good deal.

You have probably heard and read about consumer confidence Index, also known as consumer sentiment index. Increase in the index value means consumers are likely buy and soon push up the prices if supply cannot satisfy demand. Conversely, if the index value decreases, buyers will retreat and depending on the media publicity and economic condition, it can go into a downward spiral.

If you are in the market, please spend your weekend driving to the various open-for-inspections and note the changes. I suggest you inspect no less than three each week, and preferably in the same suburb, and then move in to the next one.

What you must remember is that you MUST be realistic with what you can afford to buy. Although you can raise 20% and the bank may lend you the 80%, you have to keep in mind all the other expenses associated with the purchase, for example property and pest inspections, fees and charges. In addition, the council rate and water rate are paid pro-rata by the vendor during settlement, you have to pay the balance after settlement.

Thank you for reading.

Saturday, October 06, 2018

Australia slips from top-five for Chinese property buyers in Golden Week holiday

Post to Facebook on 6/10/2018 at 4:57 PM
Commenting on “Australia slips from top-five for Chinese property buyers in Golden Week holiday”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/australia-slips-from-topfive-for-chinese-property-buyers-in-golden-week-holiday-20181005-h168i1-770367/


I'm departing Zagreb Airport, Croatia after a few weeks' absence. I read the attached article about the Chinese investors are definitely not coming to Australia which is no longer the flavour anymore.

I did make a statement that this past phenomenon is once in living history and will not repeat.

This is good news for Australian home buyers, but not for sellers. Those who bought or gambled on properties as investment during the hype-up period should have learnt a lesson.

The flow on effect of this downturn has many serious negative impacts, and buyers must sieze the opportunity before it is too late.

The lack luster market means disaster to government stamp duty, a windfall that enables the state government to announce all the ambitious projects. These promises will not be able to fulfill.

The federal government will also suffer from other taxes related to overseas investments. With the shortfall, the first buyers grant and other state grant will be reduced or even removed.

Until I return to Melbourne, stay safe and healthy!

Thank you for reading.

Tuesday, September 04, 2018

Australian home prices fall for 11th month in a row

Post to Facebook on 4/9/2018 at 9:11 AM
Commenting on “Housing slump set to be the largest in nearly 40 years”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/australian-home-prices-fall-for-11th-month-in-a-row-20180903-p501e2.html


When the property market was still hot for the wrong reason, I was warning my blog readers about the downturn. Real estate article writers and agents continued to deny the presence of such signals, hoping that these were just hiccups. I specifically stated that from June 2017 all the news media would be slowly but steadily releasing the bad news that the market was on decline.

Many investors as well as developers are like ostriches and to certain extent, some become gamblers. They did not want to acknowledge or failed to recognise that all markets, not just real estate market, involve more than the two groups of players, namely the buyers and sellers. Other players are the local and overseas powerful people / politicians that have a say in the fiscal and monetary policies. The last but not least are the media who can create great hype as well as depress the market.

In May 2015, Australia government announced an amnesty of sorts for foreign investors who had breached Australia residential property law. Offenders had to voluntarily come forward to disclose their ownership by 1 December. Almost the same time followed by the Chinese government tightening outflow of money to foreign countries. Talking to some agencies, the first sign of retreat began in October 2015.

This is a difficult time for the lenders especially the banks which are in serious damage control after the Royal Commission for Banking Industry.

The RBA have kept cash rate constant for 20 months, but half-hearted to raise rate, creating a situation that the banks have no choice but to raise mortgage rate to recover loss margin.

If the media keeps publishing bad news like this, the real estate market will not see recovery soon, and the fall is likely to continue for another 9 months, until June 2019.

Thank you for reading.

Sunday, September 02, 2018

‘Spring hasn’t sprung yet’: Melbourne property market to challenge sellers and agents

Post to Facebook on 2/9/2018 at 10:59 AM
Commenting on “‘Spring hasn’t sprung yet’: Melbourne property market to challenge sellers and agents”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/spring-hasn8217t-sprung-yet-melbourne-property-market-to-challenge-sellers-and-agents-20180831-h14qn9-761109/


Domain Auction Result for Saturday 1st September 2018
Number Listed Auctions: 725
Number Reported Auctions: 553
Sold: 340
Withdrawn: 23

The clearance auction result reported is higher than what one can figure out from the supplied data.

At this time of the year, Spring season, it gives the real estate agents a good reason to encourage potential owners to sell their properties.

Without doubt, this is the time when the flowers bloom and the sun puts on its warm welcome for people inspecting the properties.

Nice flowers and garden means more maintenance in the future. Buyers should see beyond what the gardens would look if they are in the hands of "almost everything goes" owners.

Many exposed areas of the garden bed have new pine bark, red or coloured gum chips or pebbles is a telltale sign of trouble. Garden beds needs to be properly treated to remove weeds or seeds of weeds before these cosmetic close to useless items are put on.

House inspection only for structural issues, and therefore these future maintenance or additional outlay to keep them in tip-top conditions are your own responsibility.

Big trees around the house can post a lot of trouble to the house, especially the older houses. The roots can damage drain or sewerage pipes, and can land you thousands out of pocket.

Freshly painted house may have many hidden nightmare. I can't even convince people I know very well about this potential problem, and they have to "suffer" the consequence.

If you see a freshly painted bathroom or laundry, check the tiles whether they are "painted" over. The same applies to the bathroom basin, bath tub and shower floor. The original materials are not suitable for painting, and will peel in no time at all.

Crack ceiling board, rotten laundry floor, fascia can be nasty surprises. Before you waste your time and money to get professional to inspect the potential purchase, you must check the all the taps, air conditioning, heating, lights and switches, etc.

If you find something suspicious, ask and follow by an email to the agent. It is your hard-earn money, so make sure you get your money worth.

Happy house hunting.

Thank you for reading.

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Westpac signals the ending of ultra cheap homeloans

Posted to The Age (30/8/2018) on 30/8/2018
Commenting on “Westpac signals the ending of ultra cheap homeloans”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-signals-the-end-of-ultra-cheap-homeloans-20180830-p500nc.html


The Reserved Bank of Australia (RBA) has been sending the wrong signals for the past 20 months to first home buyers and interest-only mortgagees, by keeping the cash rate unchanged.

Low interest rate is a double whammy. Let's isolate the bond market and overseas sucking our capital, but work on simple logic only. Banks require depositors to put money in the banks so that the money can be loaned to borrowers used for whatever purposes.

Low interest rate does not attract cash depositors. It turns them to invest in other forms of investments such as shares and superannuation. As for first home buyers or property investors, instead of saving towards a larger deposit, which attracts close to no return, they take the gamble to borrow and invest while the interest charge is low. This throws the supply-and-demand of money out of whack - rise in demand of money by investors, but fall in deposits.

Many baby-boomers are rich in cash, but they are reluctant to spend because they do not earn any interest to keep their principal topped up. The fear of having all their money spent before they hit the grave puts a brake to their spending and therefore the consumer economy is not growing, just as predicted.

Despite many horrible things people talk about President Trump, he manages to creates a positive wave in the US economy. RBA did not take any preemptive measures to counteract the rise in US interest rates, resulting in offshore bond market sucking capital from Australia.

If the last Treasurer, now the Prime Minister, and Reserved Bank's Philip Lowe did not warn borrowers earlier about the likely rate rise by the banks, will the borrowers pay any attention to Peter Costello?

RBA keeping the cash rate low for so long is not a wise move!

Thank you for reading.

The day I was at the Auction in Wheelers Hill

Post to Facebook on 30/82018 at 9:18 AM
Commenting on “The day I was at the Auction in Wheelers Hill”
https://www.facebook.com/groups/626923500981964/permalink/746462402361406/

On Saturday 25 August 2018, a few members from Melbourne Real Estate by Sin Fong Chan (Group) joined me in attending a property auction at Wheelers Hill. For privacy reason, I shall not disclose the property address, and also refer the members attending the auction simply as members hereafter.

By Thursday evening, the members were informed of the address, accompanied by a few questions. The intention was to arouse their interest and motivate them to explore further. A couple of members submitted their answers or comments. The next day, a list of 22 questions / instructions was messaged to the group so that the members could do further preliminary research prior to attending the auction. Some questions could only be answered after inspecting the property and paying attention to the auction process.

It was a beautiful sunny morning, no dark clouds, no rain in sight - perfect day for an auction. Unfortunately, I could not really see Port Philip Bay as described in the brochure.

The crowd was not very large; the number of attendees was around 40, mainly from the neighbourhood plus a few the members.
The property is located close to primary and secondary schools, but no way it is a stone throw away from Jells Park, Brandon Park Shopping Centre and The Glen Shopping Centre.

Although the house number is 18, an auspicious number for the Chinese, the first impression of the front view does not attract many Chinese buyers who believe in Feng Shiu; furthermore, it is not a squarish-design housenor with a grand entrance.

The carport is directly and immediately in front of the front entrance. Two roller doors and a gate have been installed, turning the carport into two unofficial “garages”, or technically speaking enclosed carports. It is matter of a choice between security and appeal, but the latter is the loser.

Just think for a moment of a scenario if two cars are garaged with the roller doors closed, and the house is on fire. How easy is it for emergency personnel to access the house?

Due to the blockage by the enclosed carports, the front entrance is dark due to lack of natural light. However, the rest of the building does capture good natural light as it is almost in a north-south orientation.

Like the properties given in the comparable sales, the walls and doors of the property are painted white. Kitchen bench top, cupboards and floor of the bathrooms and laundry are also white. Such colour scheme not only enhances the brightness of the house, but also gives a spatial perception of spaciousness.

What the members did not point out is that the house was not cluttered and there were no tables in the bedrooms. All these helped to add the extra space, which is more important for the smaller bedrooms.

The house was originally built as a 3-bedroom house with a study. The study was small and had no built-in wardrobe. A cupboard was added at later stage.

The interior was professionally decorated with hired furniture, pictures and possibly the mirror in the dining room. I believe most of the owners’ original house content except the furniture in the family room had been stored at a storage company.

The large family area is an extension built around 20 years or longer. The telltale sign is the choice of brown tiles used throughout the kitchen and the extended area. The tile colour is totally different from that of the other white-tile areas.

Closer examination of the external walls proved that the house was extended. In fact the room below the rear deck was also a later addition. The sales staff was excited to show off this hide-away cum cellar, but I did not share his sentiment.

Members were also alerted about the higher than normal rise of the steps of the stairs from the deck to the garden level. This is rather hazardous and definitely NOT permitted. I doubt some part of the house was DIY job not passed by the authority.

The gutters are concealed behind the fascia boards. They are not well designed, especially the ones in the the enclosed carport. Rain water does not flow well, and certain parts are blocked, resulting in water running into the eves. Certain parts of the eves are evident of water damage.
The house was probably painted not long ago before it was put in the market. Freshly painted house can hide parts of the house being attacked by mildew. While I did not spot mildew attack area, one member detected musty smell and rising damp.

A pool can be an asset or a liability depending on whether any member in the family takes advantage of it. It can be fairly costly to run, and it is an added chore to maintain. It is difficult to determine whether the pool is in good condition. I know of at least two nearby houses having problem with cracked pools and leaky pipes.

One option is for the new owner to fill the pool with soil, or turn it into a lily-fish pond. It is important to consult a specialist before using a backyard handyperson to do the job.

If I were interested in the property, I had to inspect it thoroughly myself or engage a professional to do the job prior to auction. An auction sale contract is an unconditional one, that is, the buyer cannot ‘buy” the house subject to, say bank loan, building inspection or pst inspection.

I believe the owners are not very pedantic or worry about fine details. The cupboard in the former study is left in its original state with varnished side panel, instead of painting it white. In one of the bedrooms, a light fitting has two different types of light bulbs which give out different colour light, namely, white and yellow respectively. As mentioned before, the floor tiles are not white throughout.

With most furniture in storage, and all the rooms with rented beds, it is a sign that the owners are not living in the house at present.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Before the start of he auction, I made the following observations:
Knowing that the property is very likely to be unoccupied, one can assume that the owners have certain degree of urgency to sell the property;
There were no expensive luxurious cars parked in the street;
There were no cars with Chinese auspicious number in sight;
The attendance appeared to be very relaxed;
No young people accompanied by parents.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

The price range quoted in the statement of information was between $1,150,000 and $1,265,000. According to realestate.com.au Wheelers Hill median house prices for 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom houses are $1,027,500 and $1,194,850 respectively. The overall median price is $1,170,000.

In Section 32, the site value (SV) and capital improved value (CIV) are $815,000 and $965,000 respectively. During boom time, CIV is general well below the market value, but during a downturn, the valuation is comparable.

What a difference a few months make! If the property was auctioned in April like those mentioned in the comparable sales, it could fetch at least $1,280,000 or another $100,000.

Why is it important to note who are attending the auction and who are bidding? There are at least 50% of Asians, mainly of Chinese origin. A quick scan of the crowd, I could not detect any serious bidders except the Indian/Sri Lankan young couple with a child.

The auctioneer opened a bid of $1 m and the young couple raised it by $100,000 to $1.1 m. No other bidder entered the ring, and the auctioneer called a vendor bid of $1.15 m. The couple was under pressure to increase the bid by one of the staff present. Was there a need to put in an increase bid if there was no one around to compete?

Without doubt, I can only assume that these are first time buyers, who buckle under the pressure exerted by the sales staff.
On a prior visit to the property at an open-for-inspection, I asked the staff whether the owners were looking at $1.3 m. He did not respond, which would mean it had to be over the quoted price range, and possible between $1.25 m and $1.3 m.

How likely the price would go beyond $1.2 m? I was certain it was not likely, because the two-storey property across the road was sold in September 2017 for $1.209 m.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

After evaluating what I knew about the CIV and based on other observations, I came to the following conclusion:
The owners have moved out of the property, and may not like to leave the house empty for too long. The cost of renting the furniture can be substantial and put a dent to the pocket;
The absence of luxurious cars indicates buyers with deep pockets from other suburbs were not showing particular interest in the property;
Similar to 2, not many crazy Chinese were going to bid up the price ridiculously,
It was unlikely to have other genuine bidders;
Mum-and-dad bankers were absent. They tend to be too excited to see their children win the bid for their dream home.
Since there was no other bidder, the young couple did not have to push the price higher after the vendor bid of $1.15 m. The property was pass-in after they bid $1.17 m.
If I were the young couple, I would not pay more than $1.1 m.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

The auctioneer and staff went into the house while the highest bidder and family waited eagerly outside in the cold in the “garage”. I believed the auctioneer and his colleagues must have negotiated intensely with the owners. They were inside the house for at least 15 minutes before the young couple were invited in for further action.

Another 10 minutes later, the emerged and told me that the property was sold for $1,180,000.

It was a good outcome for the owners with present market condition. As for the buyers paying $1.18 m, I could sense that they were happy with a price close to median price.

Thank you for reading

Sunday, August 19, 2018

Why Buy land? Why stay with paents?

Post to Facebook on 19/8/2018 at 11:15 PM
Commenting on “Why buy land? Why stay with parents?”
https://www.facebook.com/groups/626923500981964/permalink/738490573158589/

Some builders advertised they can build for less than $200k on vacant land. However, that's not the end of spending money once a house is built on it.

Council rate is charged based on Capital Improved Value (CIV), which is Site Value (SV) plus the improved value on the land plus house and any outbuilding. That means the ongoing expenses will be higher. Then there are other charges involved.

Land price is generally less than the price of land plus a building, that means one needs less money for the deposit for the la d.

When a property, be it house, unit or apartment, increases in value, it is the land that goes up in value. Land appreciates in value but a house depreciates, and in general, the increase gives a better return than putting the money in the bank to earn interest which goes towards the taxable income.

If the land is situated in a location where you like to live in, then you can build on it once you have saved enough for the next phase.

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For many young people, just be nice to their parents and stay with them until they are ready to move on. Why move out just for the so called freedom? That freedom can really burn a hole in their pocket.

If one has no parents to latch on, share with friends in rent a simple house or no frill apartment. Landlords are small business people, and more outgoing they pay for the property, will eventually pass on to the tenant.

Life style and how soon one wants to free from mortgage is a choice. Many Gen Y and Millennial can tough it out, but they choose to live up to "free" life. With longer life expectancy, and insufficient savings, Gen Y and Millennial will end up with nothing including a roof over their heads.

Land is financial security!

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PS. In order to stop land hoarding by investors, many new releases have restriction that buildings must be erected at a given period of time.

Do make sure that the land you buy has no requirement to build on the land at a given period, otherwise you will be forced to build or sell while you are ready to do so.

Since everyone financial situation is different, do consult a financial advisor should you require to include property investment in your investment portfolio.

Thank you for reading.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

London suffers biggest fall in house prices in nine years

Post to Facebook on 18/8/2018 at 10:08 AM
Commenting on “London suffers biggest fall in house prices in nine years”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/london-suffers-biggest-fall-in-house-prices-in-nine-years-20180816-h141o8-758692/


What has this news on London house prices to do with Melbourne Real Estate?

I have been saying that there is no sure win in any investment, especially you are looking for a quick buck.

If there is a guarantee about making heaps of money from real estate, why are those gurus giving their secrets away free of charge so willingly. These are just entree to get you signed up to their many thousand-dollar courses or consultation.

In an economics class, the common discussion is about supply and demand curve. There is more than one pattern or behaviour. When demand goes up, supply needs to meet supply. If supply is insufficient to meet demand, then there will be premium on the supply, and therefore prices go up.

On the contrary, if demand does not exist, and supply is excessive, then prices will go down.

If everything is hunky-dory, the prices will stay the same for years. However, the virtual “shrinking” of distance separating countries and hence the investors is moving fast, and things are getting more dynamic than years ago.

Someone has to tip the equilibrium first, and creates havoc to the market.

History has told us about Hong Kong property market collapse years ago, causing many suicides and bankruptcies. In recent times, Australia is not doing that well too. Today’s news about London's decline in property market confirms that the faster the rise, the bigger the fall.

News about biggest fall in house prices in nine years will send many to suffer a heart attack, especially those who have to sell the property due to mortgage stress. It can mean one moving out from a big house to living in a small rented room or goes homeless sleeping in the cold under a bridge.

Readers of my post must take note of my “free” advice. Take one step at a time, and do not let greed gets into your head. Do not follow the Joneses blindly, because they own a few properties, but under heavy mortgage.

For those budding developers and flipping investors, please do your sums right. Always work out the worst case scenario, and make sure you have an escape route should the worst case happen.

Melbourne cannot avoid the real estate downturn. It may be your opportunity to get your first home.

Thank you for reading.

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Puzzle over $3m in home buyers' deposits

Post to Facebook on 11/8/2018 at 1:25 AM
Commenting on “Puzzle over $3m in home buyers' deposits”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/where-is-all-the-money-puzzle-over-3m-in-home-buyers-deposits-20180810-p4zwp4.html


Times has really changed, and it seems there are more cons, sharks and crooks around now to scam and steal your hard earned money.

I am a very cautious investor. I do not like buying something off-the-plan, because a drawing on a piece of paper, a model, or a display show room may not become a real building.

How can one guarantee the workmanship is as good as displayed, or the actual size of the finished building really adhered to the original specification? What-you-see-is-what-you-get may be true about the drawing or copies of it, but not the finished construction.

I have been advising readers to invest in land if they lack sufficient fund to buy a house, but buying a diagram of subdivided land has just as much risk as buying an off-the-plan apartment or house.

Do I trust renovators, builders and developers new to the industry? Well, I am a chicken for sure, and unless they can show me what they have done or constructed, and I can talk to the owners independently, I do not bet on them.

There is a phrase in the real estate game, "buyers beware". In fact this should apply to buying anything big or small, not necessary for real estate alone. It will be very difficult to claim for damages or loss after the full amount of money is handed over to the unscrupulous crooks.

Another word of warning. Real estate investment involves hundreds of thousand of dollars, so do not save on a couple of hundred of dollars on conveyancers who are new to the industry. It is not that I do not want to give them a chance, especially the young ones; just that life experience in the conveyancing profession counts more than distinctions in academic qualification.

My hair is half white and half black. I definitely won't say that as grey. My black-and-white hair is a sign of life experience, sort of like an honours degree in addition to my paper qualification.

Some readers ask me where they should invest in. I can honestly reply here is that I am a blogger not an investment adviser. I share my knowledge, but I don't sell it at a cost.

Obviously, in order to get the maximum benefit from my advice, you have to read all my blogs here in Facebook, and my other blogs published previously in Google blogspot.com

Thank you for reading.

Thursday, August 09, 2018

Do your research before investing

Post to Facebook on 9/8/2018 at 9:08 PM PM
Commenting on “Do your research before investing”
https://www.facebook.com/groups/626923500981964/permalink/727167910957522/

I remember I had some very lazy and whining students in my accounting class. They expected me to hold their hands and provide them with answers for their homework. However, I expected them to try first and I would go through them later in class.

One student told her father about me. I felt so deeply humbled, because her dad said to to her, “you have a good teacher!”

In this group, I am not going to hold your hands, but you must first do your exercise first. I DO NOT mean you go to sign the contract and then ask for my opinion or “approval”. Who am I to show disrespect by telling you that you have made is a wrong decision? After all, good or bad is a matter of opinion.

What I want to ask explicitly is that you have to drive round checking out the various suburbs, understand more about the surrounding, the houses, infrastructure and prices.

That student may not remember this, but I still do.

Thank you for reading.

Wednesday, August 08, 2018

‘FOMO’ to become ‘FONGO’ in a falling property market

Post to Facebook on 8/8/2018 at 12:21 AM
Commenting on “‘FOMO’ to become ‘FONGO’ in a falling property market”
https://www.domain.com.au/money-markets/fomo-to-become-fongo-in-a-falling-property-market-20180806-h13l8z-756589/


There is no certain in any form of investment. Many real estate investors go from "fear of missing out" FOMO in last few years to "fear of not getting out" FONGO in recent time.

On Sunday 5 August 2018, I met the young couple who wanted to sell their apartment because they were afraid of its price would continue to fall and they might not be able to sell it later or even make a big loss.

Different owner has different financial circumstances, and for these young people, they should hold the property and ride out the downturn.

Like many property owners, they procrastinated when I advised them to sell their property when the prices in the real estate market were about or began to fall but before the news media went frenzy in declaring the coming of the doomsday.

The young couple acquired the property several years ago, and the property is tenanted. They still owe the bank a small amount, and the rent is more than enough to cover the loan repayment.

Besides the fear of falling prices, there are a couple of maintenance items which cost about two thousand dollars.

What most property investors forget is that nothing stays constant, and expenses fluctuate. No property investor should be that optimistic to think that their property can be tenanted 100% all the time. If it is not tenanted, there is loss of income.

When the tenants vacate, there is a chance that it needs freshening up, additional items to repair or maintain, advertising for property available for rent, and new leasing fee.

If a property is generating positive profit after tax over a number of years, then divide the extra maintenance outlay over the number of years, and adjust the past few years investment profit. If the return is still sound, then the property should not be sold in a panic.

I generally use a factor of 0.75 to multiply the annual rental as my projected average rental income. This is used to estimate my rental income over 5 years period.

Obviously the decision is in their hands. I did remind the young couple that I only get a share of the selling commission if the property is sold. The fact that I advised them NOT to sell it and sacrificed the commission, I was doing this with good intention.

Thank you for reading.

Sunday, August 05, 2018

More tip over the edge

Post to Facebook on 12/11/2018 at 1:26 PM
Commenting on “More tip over the edge”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/four-first-home-buyers-fight-for-footscray-apartment-at-auction-782489/


When I advise you not to spend on dining out, forget about overseas holiday or local resorts, do not buy the extra televisions and electronic gadgets, I do mean it.

When I advise you to wear proper clothing at home to keep warm; turn off lights, televisions, computers, appliances when not used, especially clothes iron; dry your clothing in the sun not in a dryer, I do mean it.

When I advise you to unsubscribe streaming services; stop driving to shops and supermarkets just for a few items; eat less to avoid getting fat so as to a avoid joining a gym, I do mean it.

All these activities cost unnecessary money that can go towards building up your needed deposit for a housing loan.

When I advise you to shop for better bank interest rate; use credit card for big ticket items, provided you have the money to repay the credit card on time; get an additional part-time job, I do mean it.

When I advise you to charge your friends or neighbours who need you to babysit their kids regularly; people who love your cakes or meals; coach their children school work, I mean it.

Besides reducing expenses, you should try increasing your income.

What I am going to advise you below is very controversial.

Do you expect your kid to be the next swimming gold medalist, ballerina, Olympic champion, Royal Albert Hall pianist, etc? How far fetched is your expectation?

You do not have to feel guilty just because Mrs Jones next door is doing it - sending her child to go for private tuition after school hours and on weekends.

While you consider this as a process of continuous improvement for the child, you forget you forfeit your opportunity to become better equipped/qualified, to gain an internal promotion or obtain a better paid employment.

The attached article talks about debt restructuring helps Stacey get out of her trouble. If you are in such unfortunate situation, don’t skip the articles.

Thank you for reading.

PS Your credit card expenses are debt liabilities and have an effect on your loan amount. I did empasise that you use your credit card provided you have the fund to repay it on time. When in doubt, check with your bank / loan manager ASAP.

Thank you for reading.

Thursday, August 02, 2018

'The worst is yet to come': House prices fall by fastest rate in six years

Post to Facebook on 2/8/2018 at 1:33 AM
Commenting on “The worst is yet to come: house prices fall by the fastest rate in six years”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/the-worst-is-yet-to-come-house-prices-fall-by-fastest-rate-in-six-years-20180801-p4zuuc.html


The news media real estate journalists and experts did not ring the alarm bell when Australian government announced the end of amnesty and tough stance taken by China government to curb the outflow of money.

Then there were all those self-proclaim real estate gurus running free seminars on accelerated depreciation, negative gearing, options and more recently property development, enticed the attendees to use duplication and replication approach to make mega bucks, and consequently led many greedy but half-bake and naive investors borrowing huge sum from various sources.

The early adopters may be the winners, but the market became congested, and prices kept going up and up because the pack mentality was at work. Mums and Dads had very good intention to help their children to get into the real estate market by providing interest free loan without knowing that the extra buying power in fact pushed the property prices up for the wrong reason.

The fall is sharp and will be for another year, around third quarter of 2019, when the bottom will be reached. However, it is not expected a sudden upswing until new government comes to power and starts mucking around with housing policies.

Hold on to your seat and tighten your seat-belt. The ride is getting more bumpy!

Thank you for reding.

Monday, July 30, 2018

Melbourne market still up as buyers fight for bluechip locations

Post to Facebook on 30/7/2018 at 1:43 AM
Commenting on “Melbourne market still up as buyers fight for blue-chip locations”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/melbourne-market-still-up-as-buyers-fight-for-bluechip-locations-20180729-h13a6x-755094/


Number Listed Auctions: 687
Number Reported Auctions: 507
Sold: 320
Withdrawn: 43
% Cleared: 58 %

I must be very thick. The report reckons the clearance rate is 58%, but I think is less than 50%.

There are far too much uncertainty at present, and buyers are in fact more cautious than before not to bid recklessly at auction.

A dated property can present a bigger headache than it is worth. Unless you have a proper building inspection to certify that it is in sound condition, you may be living in nightmare for years to come, and likely to cost more than you budgeted for in renovation or restoration.

If you are buying the first home, I do not advise you to buy a very dated home, even if you are very handy. During the first few years, you may feel the pinch in paying your mortgage, and involve in a lot of adjustment in your lifestyle.

For those who have the money, but they are still classified as first home buyers in Australia, think twice before signing the contract for that McMansion. Domestic maids are not around to help you to do the household chores, and the utility bills can be very expensive.

Get into the real estate market for your needs first. You must not make yourself a slave to your house.

Thank you for reading.

Saturday, July 28, 2018

Investing in boutique apartment

Post to Facebook on 28/7/2018 at 3:17 AM
Commenting on “Investing in boutique apartment”
https://www.facebook.com/groups/62692350000000000981964/permalink/713879138953066/

Boutique apartments are a new trend in the real estate market. Boutique is defined by Oxford Dictionary as “a business that serves a sophisticated or specialized clientele”. Within this definition lies the meaning of Boutique Apartment. It is a small, unique and luxurious space.”

So if you are buying something trendy, you are buying something shortlive. When you are buying something that will become a Salvo or Venny secondhand store, or Krispy Kream Donuts which commanded extremely ridiculously high price but the franchise lasted for less than 5 years.

Some people still ask me the question about investing in apartments. My answer is to ask them to read my blogs. It is not that I am rude not to give them an answer, it is because I have repeated many times about my sentiment, and I do not to saying the same thing like a broken recorder or demented sufferer.

I had a great morning enjoying free breaky hosted by a developer of a big apartment project. Many were booked / sold during last week’s launch with start price of $1.18 million to cool $1.55 million. Many buyers are from Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong and China. That was the order one of the salesperson put it.

Good luck to all those who can afford, and hopefully the prices will have risen a lot more when the project is complete in 3 years time.

Thank you for reading.

Apartments in Melbourne’s inner-city are selling at a loss

Post to Facebook on 28/7/2018 at 1:24 AM
Commenting on “Apartments in Melbourne’s inner-city are selling at a loss”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/apartments-in-melbournes-innercity-are-selling-at-a-loss-agents-say-20180727-h137d5-754821/


Land, land, land NOT air, air, air!

When you buy a high rise apartment which occupies very little land on the ground, because the total land size occupied is apportioned proportionately to the various apartment owners.

You can’t extend or modify the external of the apartment, and enlarge or contract the boundary. You can’t demolish it no matter how much you do’t like it.

Yes, you are paying expensive space, or air space, which incidentally not the same kind of Air space for a plane to fly over.

Many readers by now know my sentiment about apartment investment, and often I do not want to advise those owners, who never listened to me and went ahead to buy those apartments, how to minimise their losses.

In fact, I had an hour chat with the principal of a local law firm that many people would not value free advice. Well, well, well, you have been reading my free blogs from this “dummy”!

True, there are people with ulterior motives, because you and I are reminded repeatedly that there is no free lunch. It is important for you to assess the validity of the advice, either paid or free, and make your final decision.

Living in an apartment is a life-style choice. If you choose to invest in an apartment for capital grow, you are taking too much risk.

Remember, if you are contemplating to buy and live in an apartment after years of living in a house, either you are downsizing or want to join in the hustle and bustle of the city life, I suggest you to take up a one-year lease of an apartment and try it out. If you do not like it, the financial loss is minimal.

Most, if not all off-the-plan apartments are sold at inflated prices, especially those also market to overseas buyers. Who do you think pay for all the overseas marketing and promotion expenses, not to mention the sales representatives overseas want a cut as well.

I cannot be any more blunt than to say cut your losses sooner!

No matter whether you are buying or selling any property, and if you have doubt, do consult your qualified investment/financial advisor.

Thank you for reading.