Post to Facebook on 11/10/2018 at 11:08 AM
Commenting on “Sydney Melbourne bear brunt of fall in housing market confidence”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/sydney-melbourne-bear-brunt-of-fall-in-housing-market-confidence-20181010-p508vs.html
The fall in house prices of 10% and 8% in Sydney and Melbourne respectively over the next 18-24 months is rather optimistic to say the least. This is how statistics lies. I am not certain whether the fall reflects the median prices or average prices. For this discussion, the key point is that there are prices fall more than the given percentage, and there are prices falls less than that.
Most people do prophecise the doom, and keep the doom momentum going, until such time a reputable economy guru or government minister descends from somewhere to turn the market around. When the guru appears, it will be a mad rush and everyone will be scrambling for a good deal.
You have probably heard and read about consumer confidence Index, also known as consumer sentiment index. Increase in the index value means consumers are likely buy and soon push up the prices if supply cannot satisfy demand. Conversely, if the index value decreases, buyers will retreat and depending on the media publicity and economic condition, it can go into a downward spiral.
If you are in the market, please spend your weekend driving to the various open-for-inspections and note the changes. I suggest you inspect no less than three each week, and preferably in the same suburb, and then move in to the next one.
What you must remember is that you MUST be realistic with what you can afford to buy. Although you can raise 20% and the bank may lend you the 80%, you have to keep in mind all the other expenses associated with the purchase, for example property and pest inspections, fees and charges. In addition, the council rate and water rate are paid pro-rata by the vendor during settlement, you have to pay the balance after settlement.
Thank you for reading.
Commenting on “Sydney Melbourne bear brunt of fall in housing market confidence”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/sydney-melbourne-bear-brunt-of-fall-in-housing-market-confidence-20181010-p508vs.html
The fall in house prices of 10% and 8% in Sydney and Melbourne respectively over the next 18-24 months is rather optimistic to say the least. This is how statistics lies. I am not certain whether the fall reflects the median prices or average prices. For this discussion, the key point is that there are prices fall more than the given percentage, and there are prices falls less than that.
Most people do prophecise the doom, and keep the doom momentum going, until such time a reputable economy guru or government minister descends from somewhere to turn the market around. When the guru appears, it will be a mad rush and everyone will be scrambling for a good deal.
You have probably heard and read about consumer confidence Index, also known as consumer sentiment index. Increase in the index value means consumers are likely buy and soon push up the prices if supply cannot satisfy demand. Conversely, if the index value decreases, buyers will retreat and depending on the media publicity and economic condition, it can go into a downward spiral.
If you are in the market, please spend your weekend driving to the various open-for-inspections and note the changes. I suggest you inspect no less than three each week, and preferably in the same suburb, and then move in to the next one.
What you must remember is that you MUST be realistic with what you can afford to buy. Although you can raise 20% and the bank may lend you the 80%, you have to keep in mind all the other expenses associated with the purchase, for example property and pest inspections, fees and charges. In addition, the council rate and water rate are paid pro-rata by the vendor during settlement, you have to pay the balance after settlement.
Thank you for reading.
