Post to Facebook on 27/7/2018 at 12:41 PM
Commenting on “Housing slump set to be the largest in nearly 40 years”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/australias-house-prices-to-remain-flat-over-201819-financial-year-bis-oxford-economics-report-tips-20180625-h11q27-441379/?fbclid=IwAR16v6lf28dvmPnd77PcJVfPh61qvoK85wk4Md-kJ54Zs44EgUPfa97joto
The house prices will be worse than flat in coming months, but continues to go down. It is not just about credit availability, but also borrowers’ fear of losing their jobs.
How reliable is the ABS unemployment rate? Can you believe what the government claim the number of new jobs created?
Have you heard adults or even the whole families move back to live with their parents?
Job seekers get disillusioned after months of trying but without success, they give up. Some retrenched workers used their final payment to start a small business. They are not in the statistics.
As for job creation, the number is a compounded figure. It is not the net job creation number, that is the number does not deduct the job losses like the recent news about Toy R Us and Telstra.
One permanent job loss may result in creation of 3 or more part-time jobs. This is terrific way to increase the number of jobs.
In the most cynical case, a department is disbanded and a new one created. Some existing staff may be redeployed or moved over to the new department. Some will retire and some unfilled positions will make available for open contest by the public.
While it is difficult to have concrete data to support the analysis explained above, we can only rely on consumers’ buying pattern or retail data. Furthermore, we can also attend auctions to observe how eager the attendanees are, and the number of bidders participating at the auction.
If the overall economy is not as rebust as what the economists and government have been telling us, then we can foresee further decline in houses prices rather than flat.
Thank you for reading.
Commenting on “Housing slump set to be the largest in nearly 40 years”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/australias-house-prices-to-remain-flat-over-201819-financial-year-bis-oxford-economics-report-tips-20180625-h11q27-441379/?fbclid=IwAR16v6lf28dvmPnd77PcJVfPh61qvoK85wk4Md-kJ54Zs44EgUPfa97joto
The house prices will be worse than flat in coming months, but continues to go down. It is not just about credit availability, but also borrowers’ fear of losing their jobs.
How reliable is the ABS unemployment rate? Can you believe what the government claim the number of new jobs created?
Have you heard adults or even the whole families move back to live with their parents?
Job seekers get disillusioned after months of trying but without success, they give up. Some retrenched workers used their final payment to start a small business. They are not in the statistics.
As for job creation, the number is a compounded figure. It is not the net job creation number, that is the number does not deduct the job losses like the recent news about Toy R Us and Telstra.
One permanent job loss may result in creation of 3 or more part-time jobs. This is terrific way to increase the number of jobs.
In the most cynical case, a department is disbanded and a new one created. Some existing staff may be redeployed or moved over to the new department. Some will retire and some unfilled positions will make available for open contest by the public.
While it is difficult to have concrete data to support the analysis explained above, we can only rely on consumers’ buying pattern or retail data. Furthermore, we can also attend auctions to observe how eager the attendanees are, and the number of bidders participating at the auction.
If the overall economy is not as rebust as what the economists and government have been telling us, then we can foresee further decline in houses prices rather than flat.
Thank you for reading.
