Post to Facebook on 5/6/2018 11:57 AM
Commenting on “Why Australia's great banking boom has ended”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/why-australia-s-great-banking-boom-has-ended-20180605-p4zjg9.html
Not only Banking boom has ended, the article actually states that "There's a simple reason for that: Australia is finally building enough dwellings to contain its growing population."
Haven't I argued before that there was oversupply of dwellings in Australia, and that the way the calculation of housing demand should not be proportional to the population growth?
A growth of 5% in population may mean demand of round 50% of 5% if assumption is made that some of these include couples and some families with children.
Although this article is more about banking, in fact it confirms that housing prices has dropped, and in exclusive suburbs, "the falls are as deep as 10 per cent". This is just the beginning, in months to come, the falls may be as disastrous as I have predicted - 20% for most suburbs, and up to 50% for some.
I have also shown you how to calculate the auction clearance rate, and a handful of readers have attempted and proved that it has been around 50% fr several months and not as optimistic as over 60% quoted by the reports.
Do not be disheartened and disillusioned by what has been happening with the Banking Royal Commission Enquiry, and tightening of credit. While many see this as misfortune, I see opportunity.
For almost two years, I have been giving free advice to people in person as well as via my blogs NOT to invest in properties. Unfortunately, several did expect my endorsement and blessing for their signing on the dotted line. I presume people are suspicious about my motive in giving free advice.
In recent time, there are reports of boom in some regional cities/towns, despite a downward trend experienced by Melbourne. I visited three of these cities/towns about a year ago anticipating report like this to be published in due course; my conclusion was not to place my bets in them.
Australian economy is NOT as robust as what many economists reckon, and therefore any virtual boom in these cities/towns is short lived, nor sustainable.
I want you to learn to ask one question no matter where you are going to invest - "where are the jobs and how do people get there?"
Thank you for reading.
Commenting on “Why Australia's great banking boom has ended”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/why-australia-s-great-banking-boom-has-ended-20180605-p4zjg9.html
Not only Banking boom has ended, the article actually states that "There's a simple reason for that: Australia is finally building enough dwellings to contain its growing population."
Haven't I argued before that there was oversupply of dwellings in Australia, and that the way the calculation of housing demand should not be proportional to the population growth?
A growth of 5% in population may mean demand of round 50% of 5% if assumption is made that some of these include couples and some families with children.
Although this article is more about banking, in fact it confirms that housing prices has dropped, and in exclusive suburbs, "the falls are as deep as 10 per cent". This is just the beginning, in months to come, the falls may be as disastrous as I have predicted - 20% for most suburbs, and up to 50% for some.
I have also shown you how to calculate the auction clearance rate, and a handful of readers have attempted and proved that it has been around 50% fr several months and not as optimistic as over 60% quoted by the reports.
Do not be disheartened and disillusioned by what has been happening with the Banking Royal Commission Enquiry, and tightening of credit. While many see this as misfortune, I see opportunity.
For almost two years, I have been giving free advice to people in person as well as via my blogs NOT to invest in properties. Unfortunately, several did expect my endorsement and blessing for their signing on the dotted line. I presume people are suspicious about my motive in giving free advice.
In recent time, there are reports of boom in some regional cities/towns, despite a downward trend experienced by Melbourne. I visited three of these cities/towns about a year ago anticipating report like this to be published in due course; my conclusion was not to place my bets in them.
Australian economy is NOT as robust as what many economists reckon, and therefore any virtual boom in these cities/towns is short lived, nor sustainable.
I want you to learn to ask one question no matter where you are going to invest - "where are the jobs and how do people get there?"
Thank you for reading.
