Post to SinFongChanRE.wix on 14/1/2018 at 3:46 PM
Commenting on “Sydney and Melbourne home prices fall, more declines tipped for 2018”
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/sydney-and-melbourne-home-prices-fall-more-declines-tipped-for-2018-20180101-p4yy6f.html
This is my first blog for 2018. Happy New Year, readers.
I wonder how many readers of The Age or ordinary people can have any trust in those real estate / economy experts who "are predicting declines for the harbour city of 3 to 10 per cent." The difference between 3% and 10% is humongous, and it is completely laughable and an insult to the intelligence of the public.
If the "price growth of more than 17 per cent in mid-2017" did happen, as pointed out by the head of research of CoreLogic Mr Lawless, why can't a fall of similar magnitude be plausible?
I also strongly disagree with Mr Lawless' reference that "There's going to be a negative growth rate, probably most similar to the 2000 to 2003 [time period] when prices fell by about 7 per cent." Mr Lawless holds a high and respectable position, and I am not, I believe he probably knows something that I don't. However, I believe he probably is not in the IT industry or it didn't dawn on him that 2000-2002 was in fact the period when the dot com bubble burst.
In order for a city or suburb to have a sustainable growth, there must be large scale employment opportunity. The growth of Melbourne radiated from the Melbourne CBD. Itself and the surrounding suburbs still have the remains of buildings of yesteryear. I do not mean just only the old style ordinary office blocks, but also the warehouses, factories and chimneys.
With closure of factories in Carlton, Richmond, Footscray, Cliffton Hill, etc., these suburbs died, but later resurrected (that's another story). Similar story can be told about Dandenong and Geelong.
The rise and fall in prices do not depend on just the wealthy Chinese investors or first home buyers. One of the major factors is employment, and availability of public transport to places where abundant employment opportunity is available.
The prediction of fall of 7% in price in Melbourne and Sydney is plausible. In fact, I take a dimmer view and boldly predict a double digit decline by the end of the 2018.
Do you know why? How about put on your thinking hat and then leave me a comment behind your reasoning.
Thank you for reading.
Commenting on “Sydney and Melbourne home prices fall, more declines tipped for 2018”
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/sydney-and-melbourne-home-prices-fall-more-declines-tipped-for-2018-20180101-p4yy6f.html
This is my first blog for 2018. Happy New Year, readers.
I wonder how many readers of The Age or ordinary people can have any trust in those real estate / economy experts who "are predicting declines for the harbour city of 3 to 10 per cent." The difference between 3% and 10% is humongous, and it is completely laughable and an insult to the intelligence of the public.
If the "price growth of more than 17 per cent in mid-2017" did happen, as pointed out by the head of research of CoreLogic Mr Lawless, why can't a fall of similar magnitude be plausible?
I also strongly disagree with Mr Lawless' reference that "There's going to be a negative growth rate, probably most similar to the 2000 to 2003 [time period] when prices fell by about 7 per cent." Mr Lawless holds a high and respectable position, and I am not, I believe he probably knows something that I don't. However, I believe he probably is not in the IT industry or it didn't dawn on him that 2000-2002 was in fact the period when the dot com bubble burst.
In order for a city or suburb to have a sustainable growth, there must be large scale employment opportunity. The growth of Melbourne radiated from the Melbourne CBD. Itself and the surrounding suburbs still have the remains of buildings of yesteryear. I do not mean just only the old style ordinary office blocks, but also the warehouses, factories and chimneys.
With closure of factories in Carlton, Richmond, Footscray, Cliffton Hill, etc., these suburbs died, but later resurrected (that's another story). Similar story can be told about Dandenong and Geelong.
The rise and fall in prices do not depend on just the wealthy Chinese investors or first home buyers. One of the major factors is employment, and availability of public transport to places where abundant employment opportunity is available.
The prediction of fall of 7% in price in Melbourne and Sydney is plausible. In fact, I take a dimmer view and boldly predict a double digit decline by the end of the 2018.
Do you know why? How about put on your thinking hat and then leave me a comment behind your reasoning.
Thank you for reading.
